New Model Estimates CT Coronavirus Deaths Through January 2021

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CONNECTICUT — A highly cited coronavirus projection model just released updated estimates on how the pandemic could impact Connecticut through the end of January 2021. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is now estimating that there will be 5,727 COVID-19 related deaths across the state by Feb. 1, 2021. As of Oct. 14, there have been 4,537 coronavirus related deaths in Connecticut. The authors estimate that Connecticut will end the year with 4,943 COVID-19 related deaths, and follow up with a noticeable spike in January 2021. By the end of January 2021, between 30 and 40 deaths per day are estimated, according to the report. There is also expected to be a massive spike in coronavirus cases beginning around Thanksgiving and another big jump after Jan. 1 where more than 2,000 people are estimated to be infected with COVID-19 each day, including those not tested. Overall, the authors are predicting the United States will experience 394,693 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 1, 2021. “At the national level, daily cases remain constant and deaths have declined slightly. Several states in the Midwest have begun the fall/winter surge,” the authors conclude. “Given some improvements in components IHME’s modeling, we expect the number of daily deaths to reach 2,250 in mid-January. The fall/winter surge timing in each state will …

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